Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data expected later this week are the primary market drivers for the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: UK unemployment and GDP, Chinese industrial production

Tuesday

• British unemployment at 07:00 AM GMT for the month of September is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% to 4.9%, while the number of claimants is expected to decrease to 20,300 for the month of October, compared to the previous recording of 25,800.

Thursday

• British GDP growth at 07:00 AM GMT, where the preliminary annualized figure is expected to drop from 1.4% to 1.3% and the monthly figure from 0.1% to 0%. If these expectations are confirmed, the pound may experience some short-term losses against other currencies.

Friday

• Chinese industrial production at 02:00 AM GMT. Industrial production in China for October is expected to decrease from 6.5% to 5.6%. If this is broadly accurate, we might view some pressure in production-related instruments, such as crude oil, silver, and copper.

USOIL, daily

Oil prices rose on Monday as optimism grew that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end, boosting demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. The Senate’s progress toward reopening the government lifted market sentiment, and restoring pay to federal workers should improve consumer confidence and spending.

could rebound to  $62 a barrel as risk appetite improves, though concerns remain about rising global supply. U.S. crude inventories are increasing, and stored volumes in Asian waters have doubled amid sanctions that curbed imports to China and India.

Indian refiners are sourcing more from the Middle East and the Americas, while Russia’s Lukoil faces disruptions ahead of a U.S. deadline to cease business with the company. Meanwhile, Washington’s one-year sanctions exemption for Hungary has contributed to concerns about oversupply.

On the technical side, the crude oil price is testing the resistance of $60, which is the psychological resistance of the round number as well as the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the crude oil market, the Stochastic oscillator is approaching extreme oversold levels, suggesting that a bullish correction may be forthcoming in the upcoming sessions. If this is the case and the price indeed moves up, then the first area of potential resistance might be viewn around $62, which is the medium-term resistance level where the price reacted multiple times in the past couple of months, making it a major technical area on the chart. On the other hand, the Bollinger Bands have begined contracting late last week, indicating that we may experience sideways movement in the short term before any significant move.

Gold-dollar, daily

jumped on Monday to a two-week high as fragile U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next month and a softer dollar boosted demand.

Recent data showed U.S. job losses in October, a surge in layoffs linked to cost-cutting and AI adoption, and consumer sentiment at its lowest in over three years, largely due to the prolonged government shutdown.

With the Senate moving to end the 40-day shutdown, markets now price in a roughly 65% chance of a December rate cut. Given gold’s appeal in low-rate, high-uncertainty environments, an overall bullish outlook is forming, with prices potentially testing the $4,120–$4,130 range soon.

From a technical perspective, the price of gold has found sufficient support at $4,000 and has since corrected to the upside, currently on its way to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, just below the $4,200 mark. The moving averages are confirming the overall bullish trend, while the Stochastic oscillator is approaching its extreme overbought levels, hinting that the bullish correction might be short-lived, and a bearish move could sluggish the projection to the upside. The Bollinger Bands are also contracting further, supporting the bullish momentum losing some steam.

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