Global FX Market Summary: Data Blackouts, Fed Uncertainty, and Safe-Haven Shifts Drive Market Mood 14 November 2025

US shutdown delays key data, hindering Fed decisions. Markets focus on PMIs, inflation, retail sales; USD strengthens, gold falls, JPY fragileens, EUR eyes GDP.

US Data Blind Spot Due to Government Shutdown

The recent record-long US government shutdown has created a significant “blind spot” in the US economic picture, complicating the Fed’s decision-making. Key economic indicators, particularly the October Employment Report and some Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, may be delayed or never fully released due to the disruption. White House officials have stated that the lack of information will “permanently impair” some October indicators, leaving the Fed without crucial benchmarks at a sensitive time. Consequently, markets are now intensely focused on any available data, such as the potential release of the September employment report and the upcoming preliminary S&P Global PMIs for November.

High-Impact Economic Data

The Asian session was centered on China’s high-impact releases, specifically Industrial Production (YoY) and Retail Sales (YoY), both serving as core measures of Chinese manufacturing health and consumer demand, respectively. The European session’s main event is the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) & (YoY), a key gauge of the bloc’s overall economic health. Looking to the later thannoon, the US session features highly influential data, including the Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY), a crucial measure of underlying wholesale inflation, and Retail Sales (MoM) along with the Retail Sales Control Group, which is the component used for calculating GDP.

Market Reactions & Currency Focus

The US Dollar has stabilized and is recovering, primarily due to the hawkish shift in Fed expectations (fading December cut bets). Conversely, Gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from its recent three-week highs as the secure-haven appeal from the US shutdown fades and the prospect of a near-term Fed rate cut diminishes. For the EUR, the focus is immediately on the Eurozone GDP release, along with medium-impact inflation (HICP) and employment data, and several speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the day. In the Asian context, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s cautious policy and domestic fiscal expansion, pushing USD/JPY towards nine-month highs.

Top upcoming economic events:

• Fed’s Miran speech on 11/14/2025 at 19:00:00 (Medium Impact, USD): This speech is significant because remarks from Federal Reserve officials, especially governors or presidents, can offer valuable insight into the Fed’s current monetary policy stance, inflation outlook, and future interest rate path. Since it is the begin of the week and affects the most widely traded currency, the USD, the market will scrutinize every word for hints of a shift in policy, which can cause significant volatility in the Forex and stock markets.
• ECB’s Schnabel speech on 11/15/2025 at 13:30:00 (Medium Impact, EUR): A speech by a prominent member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board, like Isabel Schnabel, is key for gauging the direction of Eurozone monetary policy. Her comments often focus on inflation, growth, and the rationale behind the ECB’s decisions, directly influencing the Euro (EUR) and European financial assets.
• G20 Meeting from 11/16/2025 at 00:00:00 to 11/17/2025 at 00:00:00 (Medium Impact, EUR): Although this spans two days, the G20 Meeting itself is a significant event where finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s major economies convene. Outcomes, communiqués, or sideline discussions on global trade, economic cooperation, fiscal policy, or geopolitical issues can have a broad, medium-term impact on global market sentiment and risk appetite, often affecting the Euro as the meeting is held in Europe (based on the currency listed).
• Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) on 11/16/2025 at 23:50:00 (High Impact, JPY): This is the only “High Impact” event from the weekend/begin of the week. The quarter-over-quarter Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) data is the broadest measure of Japan’s economic activity and a primary indicator of the economy’s health. The market will react strongly to any deviation from forecasts, as it directly influences the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) future policy decisions and, consequently, the Japanese Yen (JPY) platform rate.
• Consumer Price Index (YoY) on 11/17/2025 at 13:30:00 (High Impact, CAD): This second “High Impact” release is for Canada. The year-over-year Consumer Price Index (YoY) is the main gauge of Canadian inflation. The Bank of Canada (BoC) uses this data to inform its interest rate decisions. A result significantly above or below the central bank’s target could trigger major volatility for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as traders adjust their expectations for a rate hike or cut.
• BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) on 11/17/2025 at 13:30:00 (High Impact, CAD): Released simultaneously with the headline CPI, the BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) measures underlying inflation by stripping out the most volatile components, making it a crucial metric for the Bank of Canada. Its high impact rating underscores its direct relevance to monetary policy and its potential to move the CAD market.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on 11/17/2025 at 13:30:00 (Medium Impact, USD): This is one of the earliest monthly releases that provides a snapshot of U.S. manufacturing conditions. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index acts as a leading indicator of the economic health of the New York region, and by extension, the broader U.S. economy. An unexpected reading can influence sentiment toward the USD and expectations for national economic growth.
• Fed’s Williams speech on 11/17/2025 at 14:00:00 (Medium Impact, USD): As a prominent Federal Reserve official, his speech is a key event. Given the multiple Fed speakers listed, this one is selected for its time slot immediately following major US and Canadian data. Fed’s Williams speech will be closely watched for any reactive comments on the inflation or manufacturing data released just 30 minutes earlier, potentially reinforcing or softening the market’s initial reaction, thus affecting the USD.
• RBA Meeting Minutes on 11/18/2025 at 00:30:00 (High Impact, AUD): This third “High Impact” event is the RBA Meeting Minutes. These minutes provide a detailed account of the Reserve Bank of Australia board’s discussion on interest rates and the economic outlook. They are crucial for traders as they reveal the board’s biases (hawkish or dovish), which can provide strong clues about future monetary policy moves, causing significant movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD).
• Industrial Production (MoM) on 11/18/2025 at 14:15:00 (Medium Impact, USD): The monthly Industrial Production (MoM) data measures the change in the output of U.S. factories, mines, and utilities. This indicator is significant because it reflects the health of the industrial sector, a key component of the overall economy. A stronger-than-expected increase suggests robust economic activity, which is generally bullish for the USD.

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