Nasdaq 100 Comes Under Heavy Pressure
The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) slid to a one-month low today (point 3 on the chart), marking the fragileest performance among major US equity benchmarks. The technology sector is facing a sharp pullback triggered by two key developments:
→ Shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Market estimates for a rate cut on 10 December have continued to fall, with the probability now at 43%, down from 62% just a week earlier.
→ Growing doubts about AI-related valuations. A Bank of America survey of fund managers highlights extreme crowdedness in tech: 54% pointed to long positions in the “Magnificent Seven” as the most overpopulated trade, while 45% cited an AI bubble as the largegest tail risk.
Technical View: Nasdaq 100
Our hourly analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) from 10 November originally outlined an upward-sloping channel. Since then, persistent tradeing pressure has reshaped the structure:
→ the channel has widened to the downside;
→ its former lower support line has become the median resistance line.
Demand dynamics:
→ The lower edge of this expanded channel may still provide a defensive barrier against deeper declines.
→ The sequence of shallow downside breaks (labelled 1-2-3), each followed by an abrupt reversal, resembles a Liquidity Grab, hinting at aggressive purchaseing interest lurking beneath the surface.
Supply dynamics:
→ The 25220–25415 region stands out as a confirmed FVG zone, where a strong imbalance previously allowed tradeers to dominate.
While bulls might attempt to lift the Nasdaq 100 back into its former upward channel, the feasibility of such a move will heavily depend on Nvidia’s quarterly results — a pivotal release for the tech sector, due tomorrow.
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