Strategy Has 70% Chance to Join S&P 500 This Year Despite Stock Crash

What Is Happening With Strategy later than BTC’s Market Pullback?

The latest crypto correction has revived long-running questions about the durability of corporate BTC treasury strategies, but new research from Matrixport suggests Strategy — the world’s largest corporate BTC holder — remains structurally intact and possibly on the verge of a major milestone.

Matrixport’s Wednesday report said Strategy’s underlying financial position does not point to any near-term liquidation risk, even later than BTC fell to roughly 90,582 dollars and the company’s share price dropped from 474 dollars to about 207 dollars. Instead, the pressure has shifted to shareholders who bought the stock when its net asset value (NAV) premium was stretched.

The report noted that when Strategy’s equity is overlaid with BTC’s chart, the stock now appears “relatively cheap,” and that the company may still secure **S&P 500** inclusion in December. Timing and valuation, the analysts warned, remain critical for investors attempting to trade S&P-related catalysts.

Crypto intelligence firm 10X Research echoed that view earlier, assigning a 70 percent probability that Strategy would join the S&P 500 before the end of the year.

Investor Takeaway

How Does Strategy’s Credit Rating Affect Its Outlook?

In a first for a BTC-treasury-centric company, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a “B-” credit rating — placing it in speculative, non-investment-grade territory. While this aligns the firm with high-risk corporate borrowers, the rating also formalizes a benchmark for evaluating crypto treasury companies through traditional credit frameworks.

The rating reflects Strategy’s reliance on BTC-driven financial performance, its substantial leverage, and the volatility inherent to digital assets. But it also recognizes the company’s long operational history, liquidity management and the scale of its BTC reserves.

For a traditional credit agency to issue a rating on a business so tightly linked to BTC represents a notable step in mainstreaming corporate digital-asset balance sheets.

Are Other Corporate BTC Treasuries Showing Signs of Stress?

While Strategy has maintained its ability to raise funds, smaller (DATs) are facing increasing pressure. Several firms saw their market net asset value (mNAV) drop below the critical threshold of 1 this year, effectively limiting their ability to issue shares to purchase more BTC.

The mNAV metric compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its . Companies with an mNAV above 1 can issue equity at a premium and deploy proceeds into additional crypto accumulation. Firms below 1 struggle to do so, losing their fundraising advantage.

According to recent data, mNAV ratios dropped below 1 for multiple DATs including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, Upexi and . The downward shift began in June and intensified through the latest drawdown.

• When mNAV falls below 1: companies cannot expand their BTC holdings without taking on debt.
• When mNAV rises above 1: companies can raise equity at a premium and accelerate accumulation.

For smaller firms, the recent drop has raised concerns about treasury sustainability and their ability to weather deep BTC corrections.

Investor Takeaway

Why Strategy Says It Can Survive Massive BTC Drawdowns

Despite volatility, dismissed concerns about the firm’s resilience. In a Fox Business interview on Tuesday, Saylor said the company is “engineered to take an 80 to 90 percent drawdown and keep on ticking,” noting that earlier BTC crashes did not materially change its long-term accumulation plan.

Strategy underscored that commitment this week with a major purchase: the acquisition of 8,178 BTC — worth approximately 835 million dollars — announced Monday. This is a sharp acceleration from the roughly 400 to 500 BTC purchases typical in recent months.

The acquisition demonstrates the firm’s willingness to deploy capital even in periods of market fragileness, continuing to position itself as both an operator and a high-leverage BTC proxy for institutional investors.

For traders, the immediate question is whether Strategy’s increasing accumulation pace and potential S&P 500 inclusion can offset the sentiment drag from falling NAV ratios and macro-driven BTC volatility.

As long as BTC does not collapse far below the company’s long-term cost basis, Strategy’s model — built on debt cycling, equity issuance, and balance-sheet compounding — remains intact.