BTC’s ‘Max Pain’ Zone Identified Between $84K and $73K, Says Bitwise Analyst

Where Is BTC’s “Max Pain” Capitulation Zone?

BTC is entering what analysts describe as its “max pain” area, with major cost-basis levels from institutional holders now shaping the likely bottom of the current cycle. According to André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe, the critical zone sits between BlackRock’s IBIT cost basis at 84,000 dollars and Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) cost basis at around 73,000 dollars.

Dragosch noted that BTC typically finds its final cycle floor near the levels where large institutional purchaviewrs face the steepest drawdowns. These thresholds often mark what he called “fire-sale pricing” — moments when market positioning experiences a full reset and forced tradeers capitulate.

IBIT, , is a major influence on this zone. Its cost basis reflects the average price of accumulated BTC holdings. As spot prices fall toward that level, redemptions often accelerate as investors reassess whether further downside risk outweighs the long-term thesis.

This dynamic is already showing up in flow data. IBIT saw its worst single-day outflow to date, losing 523 million dollars on Tuesday. Over the past month, outflows across all spot BTC ETFs have reached 3.3 billion dollars, equal to 3.5 percent of .

Strategy faces even greater pressure. The company’s net asset value multiple recently fell below 1, a sign that the market is valuing MSTR shares at a discount to its underlying BTC holdings. If BTC retests the 73,000-dollar cost basis associated with Strategy’s treasury, liquidity concerns could intensify.

Investor Takeaway

Macro Uncertainty Threatens Liquidity as the Fed Wavers

The macro backdrop is compounding BTC’s stress. CryptoQuant analysis shows that the December FOMC meeting carries unusually high uncertainty. A recent government shutdown delayed key employment data, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited visibility into real economic conditions.

Rate-cut expectations have dropped sharply, falling to 41.8 percent on Thursday. Meeting minutes show a divided committee weighing persistent three-percent inflation against concerns that loosening too soon could reignite price pressures.

If the Fed hesitates or signals further tightening, liquidity could remain constrained. This is the identical environment that triggered BTC’s steep decline earlier in November.

Despite the macro headwinds, stablecoin balances on platforms have jumped to a record 72 billion dollars. Historically, such expansions in stablecoin liquidity have preceded major BTC rallies once macro conditions stabilize. Under a no-cut scenario, analysts expect BTC to trade between 60,000 dollars and 80,000 dollars through year-end as sidelined liquidity waits for clarity.

BTC Must Reclaim $98,000 to Reverse the Downtrend

BTC has been sliding since ahead November, falling to a six-month low of 88,267 dollars on Thursday. The drop has pushed , including the 50-week exponential moving average near 100,000 dollars and the yahead open at 93,300 dollars.

Traders now view the 97,000 to 98,500 dollar area as the pivotal zone that could flip momentum back into bullish territory. Swissblock, a private wealth manager, said BTC is showing “cycle-level exhaustion,” noting that price momentum has dropped to levels last viewn during previous major bottoms.

Glassnode analysts also highlighted the 95,000 to 97,000 dollar region, where the negative-one standard deviation currently sits. They said reclaiming this band would be an ahead signal that the market is returning to equilibrium.

Above spot prices, liquidity heatmaps show heavy concentrations of ask orders between 96,600 dollars and 98,500 dollars. According to CoinGlass, more than 2.1 billion dollars in open liquidity sits in this cluster, creating the conditions for a potential short squeeze.

Investor Takeaway

Will Liquidations Drive BTC Toward $100,000?

Traders are increasingly watching for a liquidity grab near 98,000 dollars. If this level breaks, a quick move to 100,000 dollars becomes plausible. BTC trader AlphaBTC called this zone “a juicy area to target,” pointing to the ahead-November consolidation range between 100,000 and 104,000 dollars as the next potential magnet.

If bulls can push BTC into that region, sentiment may flip rapidly. Supporting this view, saw 75 million dollars in inflows on Wednesday later than five days of redemptions. While modest, the return of positive flows signals potential stability later than a volatile month.

For BTC to avoid deeper capitulation, it must reclaim overhead resistance zones and demonstrate that long-term holders remain committed. The coming days — shaped by economic data releases and Fed expectations — will likely dictate whether the 84K–73K range becomes a purchaseing opportunity or a staging ground for further downside.